A Shift Towards Probabilistic Safety Assessment SOLAS 90 plus 50

SOLAS 90+50 is a term often used to collectively refer to the SOLAS 90 damage stability standards and the Stockholm Agreement, as well as the subsequent SOLAS 2009 regulations, which introduced a probabilistic approach to ship safety.

Key Points:

• SOLAS 90: Established deterministic damage stability requirements for ships, particularly focusing on passenger ferries.
• Stockholm Agreement: Introduced additional, stricter stability standards for ro-ro passenger ships operating in specific sea areas, particularly in response to the MS Estonia tragedy.
• SOLAS 2009: Marked a significant shift from deterministic to probabilistic methods for assessing ship safety. This involved using statistical models to evaluate the likelihood of various damage scenarios and their consequences.

Why the Shift to Probabilistic Approach?

The probabilistic approach offers several advantages:

• More Realistic Assessment: It considers a wider range of potential damage scenarios, providing a more accurate picture of ship safety.
• Improved Risk Management: By quantifying risks, it allows for better decision-making in ship design and operation.
• Enhanced Safety: Ultimately, it aims to improve the overall safety of ships and passengers.

Challenges and Considerations:

• Complexity: Probabilistic methods require sophisticated calculations and modeling, which can be complex and resource-intensive.
• Data Availability: Accurate data on damage scenarios and their consequences is essential for reliable probabilistic assessments.
• Industry Adoption: The transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods requires a significant learning curve for the maritime industry.

Despite these challenges, the move towards probabilistic safety assessment is a crucial step in enhancing maritime safety.